How Democratic surrender became strategy
“Courage and resistance are contagious. So are panic and surrender. There is only one correct response.” ~ Robert Hubbell
“The best revenge is success.” ~ Michele’s Mother, circa 1993
Yesterday, I finished my last conversation of the day with just enough time to literally run down the stairs (water bottle sloshing and splashing), jump into the car, and rush to my son’s school for pickup.
The school is 20 minutes away, so a 20 minute car ride means I have 20 uninterrupted minutes – which on most days feels like a vacation. I typically fill those 20 minutes thinking about how to best optimize the rest of the 23 hours (and change) in the day.
But yesterday, I spent those 20 minutes fuming about the GOP’s plan to gerrymander themselves into a few more Congressional seats – and what I’m seeing in Democrats’ reaction to it.
Gerrymandering is antithetical to democracy. Done with the surgical precision that Republicans are now known for, it gives one party an unfair mathematical edge over the other. But something about how Democrats have been talking about the gerrymandering in Texas, Ohio, and Missouri has been nagging at me.
Because Republican victories in these newly gerrymandered districts are not a foregone conclusion.
Unless we make them so.
Asking folks to muster the courage and faith that we need to meaningfully contest every race sometimes feels like a losing battle – perhaps because it’s fighting history.
It’s a sad truth that Democrats have a decades-long track record of obeying in advance and giving up before the fight has even begun. In huge swaths of the country, Democrats have made it strategy to leave the reddest and most gerrymandered races uncontested or completely unsupported (with funding or functional help).
The numbers tell the story, and it’s a stark one: in 2024 – obviously an extremely high-stakes Presidential Election year – Democrats didn’t contest 20 Congressional seats at all. Of the races we did contest, dozens of Democratic nominees for Congress had less than $100,000 to run their entire campaign.
But even those meager funds are criticized. People who run in the reddest districts are told (sometimes to their face!) that the funds spent on their races would be better spent on what are perceived as flippable purple seats. Never mind that these folks inspire and organize their own communities while spreading a Democratic message in some of the hardest-to-reach places.
Democratic nominees in red districts learn pretty quickly that they’re probably on their own. But Republicans have learned from our concessions, too. They have reams of data supporting the proposition that if they gerrymander a district enough, Democrats will simply fold and not “waste” resources on that district.
Once they saw how easy it was to get us to give up vast swaths of rural America that used to vote solidly blue, they pushed harder. They gerrymandered more. More races looked unwinnable. Support consolidated further. We contested fewer races. Rinse and repeat. And repeat. And repeat.
This cycle of retreat has been going on for decades, and it’s hollowed out the support structure for Democrats in much of rural America.
And right now, I see Democrats across the country all but awarding these yet-to-be-gerrymandered districts to Republicans. At this point it’s just pundit talk and back-of-napkin math – but it’s still dangerous because it sets a mental framework of hopelessness rather than determination.
It’s also wildly premature, and ignores what appears to be Democrats’ massive enthusiasm advantage.
So let’s flip the script. Let’s change our frame.
Let’s stop talking about these soon-to-be gerrymandered districts as foregone conclusions. Instead, let’s talk about them as opportunities.
According to Fair Vote, in 2024 the average margin of victory in a House race was a whopping 27 points. But for the first time in memory, Republicans are intentionally going to decrease their margin of victory.
When the GOP gerrymanders to make Democratic districts less Democratic, they have to make their super-safe Republican districts slightly less safely Republican. Maybe they’re taking an R+20 district down to R+15, or an R+30 down to R+20. Either way, they’re moving the needle in our direction – on purpose.
Does this mean our nominees will have to work harder to win their districts? Yes. Does it mean theirs will have to as well? Also yes.
Literally nobody knows what’s going to happen in November 2026. Anyone trying to tell you what’s going to happen in the next six months is just faking it. Every day brings us a few steps further down an uncharted path. So why not admit we have no earthly idea what’s coming, and start swinging for the fences, starting now?
Let’s talk about these races as opportunities to stick it to the GOP by over-performing, soaking up Republican resources, and boosting infrastructure in previously uncontested places. Let’s use them to boost enthusiasm in Red Districts and give voters a choice and a chance – because our side believes in democracy, and that’s what democracy requires.
I know this works because I’ve seen it in action. At Every State Blue, we crowdfund for underfunded Democrats running for state legislature and Congress. We intentionally fund first the nominees that have the least – so we make sure they aren’t going solo. Individual members kick in a few bucks a month. But over time, this collective contribution has become tremendous.
Our grassroots communities in Missouri and Ohio are now some of the largest donors in their respective states – which is fantastic on its own.
But even more importantly, the existence of these communities and the support they provide is making a real difference in recruitment.
In 2024, there were 5,807 state legislative seats up for election, and of that total 2,224 (38%) were uncontested by one of the major parties. In 2024, 1,111 state legislative races were uncontested by Democrats for a general uncontested rate of 19%. The races that were uncontested by Democrats are concentrated in Red States, as you’d expect.
But not in the red states where ESB has a grassroots community that’s dedicated to funding the toughest races.
While on average Democrats left 19% of state legislative seats uncontested, in Ohio and Missouri, where our Blue Ohio and Blue Missouri projects were already fully up and running (so that nominees knew to expect our support), the combined rate of uncontested races was 12.9% (state house) and 9% (state senate).
It turns out that building community that supports people fighting against the fascists in their own backyard is both good for the soul, and good for recruitment.
We all want our Congressional leaders to find a higher gear – to push back against the authoritarian slide with the passion this moment requires. We can model that radical dedication here, because how we support and run candidates in these places is completely within our control.
The only way out of this mess is to do the simple but difficult thing: show up and be radically dedicated to the idea that we should fight everywhere. Refuse to focus only on flippable districts and recognize the value of pushing back in every corner of the country. Recruit the candidates. Knock the rural doors. Put yard signs up in fields. Give the people doing hard work in red and rural spaces what they need to be successful. Write postcards. Send donations.
It’s easy to fall prey to the idea that you can’t make a dent, can’t make a difference, so why even try. But that’s not even close to the truth.
Maybe it will be controversial for me to complain about how Democrats are talking about (or not talking about) these soon-to-be-gerrymandered seats. My point is simply that we’ve baked tactical surrender into our strategy for so long that we limit ourselves unnecessarily.
We clip our own wings, and then complain we can’t fly high enough.
I just think that should stop.
Mayor Pete once said, “There’s no such thing as a permanently red state.” He was right – with one caveat: There’s no such thing as a permanently red state, so long as people like you and I don’t give up.
As my mother told me decades ago: The best revenge is success.
Be disobedient with me, friend.
Let’s get to work.
Actions for the Week of August 26, 2025
Friend, things may be heavy – but you can lighten that load by doing something small – a “small deed” – to bring about the world that you want to see. In doing so we tell the world, the universe, our leaders – and most importantly, ourselves – that we will not go quietly into that good night.
I call it Action Therapy.
That’s why in each Tuesday post I share a few “small things” – usually a Small Thing to Read, a Small Event to Attend, and a Small Call to Make or Action to Take. My intention here is to give you actions you can tuck into your week with ease – and know that you’re doing something today to make tomorrow better.
Join me in doing so. It matters.
Small Thing to Read: Gov. JB Pritzker Speech
On Monday, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, flanked by a diverse coalition of local community leaders and elected officials, pushed back on Trump’s promises to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago. As we have come to expect from the Governor, his speech was exceptional and is well worth your time. I think you’ll find it as inspiring and galvanizing as I did.
You can watch it here, or read it here.
Small Event to Attend: Blue Tennessee + Workers Over Billionaires
First, join Every State Blue’s newest project Blue Tennessee on Thursday night to meet our brand new Blue TN Executive Director! Dr. Michaela Barnett is a scientist, small business owner, former Congressional staffer, and all-around powerhouse. She’s the bee’s knees and (IMHO) one to watch. The meeting is at 6:30 central on zoom. Register here.
Second, this Labor Day the 50501 Movement and many coalition partners are hosting Workers Over Billionaires rallies throughout the US. These visible actions are very important to show the depth and breadth of support for pro-democracy forces. Even if you can’t attend in person, you can help spread the word and encourage others!
You can find rallies at
https://www.fiftyfifty.one/ and https://maydaystrong.org and The Protest List.
Small Call to Make or Action to Take
Yes, I’m the Executive Director of Every State Blue (https://everystateblue.org). So my day-to-day is literally spent building and supporting communities that crowdfund for the underdogs running for state legislature in Ohio, Missouri, and Tennessee – and for the brave souls doing the same in Congress. If you’re inspired to help nominees, join one (or all!) of our projects.
You can find them all at https://everystateblue.org.
This is truly a labor of love for me, so I’m happy to share my passion with you. As I often say to our communities, this may be fundraising, but it’s not about money. It’s about who we are, who we want to be, and how we can all get there together.
If you’d rather support our efforts as an organization, we’d be grateful for that, too. You can do that here. (My gratitude in advance.)
Thanks for reading, friend – I’m glad to see you here! You’re making a difference, I promise.
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Small Deeds Done 